Monthly Economic Update for December, 2018

In this month’s recap: equities rise with a little help from the Fed, oil dives, and most key domestic indicators look quite strong.

Monthly Economic Update

 

Presented by JB Beckett, December 2018

 

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

For most of November, the stock market was plagued by the same skepticism evident in October: the sense that corporate profits were declining and economic growth was slowing. Then Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell threw investors a line: he delivered a speech late in the month that soothed some of the considerable anxiety in the equity markets. Helped by Powell’s comments, the S&P 500 gained 1.79% on the month. While analysts sensed the bull market was in its late phase, consumers remained confident, enthusiastic participants in an apparently thriving economy. In a surprise, home sales picked up. Oil fell. The United Kingdom scheduled a critical parliamentary vote on the Brexit; China and the U.S. returned to the negotiating table regarding tariffs.

1

 

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Speaking to the Economic Club of New York on November 28, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell delivered a rather dovish message: if interest rates were not quite where they should be, given the robust economy, they were at least close. In his view, rates were “just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy – that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.” This was what Wall Street wanted to hear. The Dow Industrials rocketed north 618 points on the day. Just a month earlier, Powell had sounded distinctly hawkish, commenting that rates were a “long way from neutral.”

2,3

A trio of reports affirmed that the economy was indeed in good condition. Even after nine years of recovery from the Great Recession, the pace of hiring was still noteworthy: the Department of Labor’s October jobs report said that 250,000 net new jobs were created in the tenth month of the year. Annualized wage growth was at 3.1%, the best in ten years; headline unemployment was at 3.7%, and U-6 unemployment (unemployed and the marginally employed), at 7.4%. According to a Census Bureau report, the pace of retail sales improved 0.8% in October, quite a change from the 0.1% retreat a month before. Finally, as the month ended, the Department of Commerce announced a 0.6% rise in personal spending in October along with a 0.5% improvement for personal incomes.

4,5

Burgeoning economies go hand in hand with inflation, and the annualized gain in the Consumer Price Index did grow in October to 2.5% from the previous 2.3%. The yearly advance for the core CPI ticked down 0.1% to 2.1%, however. The federal government affirmed third-quarter growth at 3.5% in its third GDP estimate.

5

Consumer confidence indices retreated slightly from recent lofty heights. The University of Michigan’s monthly barometer ended the month at 97.5, down from 98.3; the Conference Board’s index declined to 135.7 from the prior 137.9.

5

Now to the factory front. The latest monthly reports from the Institute for Supply Management showed its manufacturing purchasing manager index at 57.7, below the 59.8 level it was at in September. ISM’s service sector PMI dipped 1.3 points last month to 60.3. While these were descents, both readings were quite strong. Hard goods orders declined 4.4% last month, but that mostly had to do with aircraft orders in the defense industry; minus defense and plane orders, they were simply flat for October.

5,6

Industrial output rose 0.1% in October, while manufacturing production advanced 0.3%. The Producer Price Index rose 0.6% in October; a 7.6% jump for wholesale gas prices was instrumental in the gain. The October PPI increase left yearly wholesale inflation at 2.9%.

5,7

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

Last month, lawmakers in the United Kingdom scheduled a parliamentary vote on a draft of the Brexit deal for December 11. If Parliament supports the plan created by Prime Minister Theresa May’s government, the next step would be a vote on a withdrawal agreement from the European Union, pursuant to a European Parliament vote and approval from the E.U. Council. If May’s deal is defeated in London, then the U.K. government will have 21 days to make a choice: it could authorize a renegotiation of the Brexit with the E.U., break off ties with the E.U. without any deal, schedule another U.K. referendum on the Brexit, or call for a general election. May’s deal received formal approval from E.U. leaders in late November.

8

On November 30, President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto formally signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade pact designed to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The accord must still be approved by the legislature of each member nation, and approval may not be easy on Capitol Hill. In the east, the major news item was the evident deceleration in Chinese factory output. China’s official manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.0 in November, meaning no month-over-month expansion for the sector. (Anything below 50 means contraction.) Some analysts see China’s GDP declining to the vicinity of 6.0% in 2019, which would be its poorest GDP in three decades. Its government may need to resort to an economic stimulus if things weaken further.

9,10

 

WORLD MARKETS

Many foreign stock markets saw November gains. Among the biggest: the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, 7.81%; the Merval in Argentina, 6.99%; the Nifty 50 and Sensex in India, at a respective 6.65% and 6.80%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 4.17%, South Korea’s Kospi added 4.08%, MSCI’s Emerging Markets index improved 4.06%, and Russia’s Micex advanced 4.02%. In Spain, the IBEX gained 3.08%; in Brazil, the Bovespa added 3.01%. There were also gains of 2.04% for Canada’s TSX Composite, 1.26% for Taiwan’s TSE 50, 0.96% for the MSCI World index, 0.82% for the FTSE Eurofirst 300, and 0.78% for the Shanghai Composite.

11,12

 

 

Some indices suffered November setbacks. Germany’s DAX lost 0.27%, the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100, 0.79%. Australia’s All Ordinaries fell 2.35%, while Mexico’s Bolsa retreated 4.15%.

11

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

A barrel of oil was worth only $50.42 on the NYMEX at the close on November 30. WTI crude dropped 21.80% for the month. Heating oil sank 19.00%, and unleaded gasoline plummeted 20.22%. Natural gas? Quite the opposite. With winter quickly appearing, the value of that commodity jumped 41.29%.

13

 

In crops, soybeans rose 6.74%, and coffee fell 7.88%. In between those extremes, wheat gained 2.84%; cotton, 2.37%; corn, 0.76%. Sugar retreated 2.43%, and cocoa, 3.73%. Copper advanced 4.38% in November; gold also improved, gaining 0.70% to close out the month at a COMEX value of $1,222.10 an ounce. Silver and platinum lost ground last month: silver was off 1.94%; platinum, 4.57%. As November concluded, silver was worth $14.14 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index ended November at 96.79 after a one-month loss of 0.35%.

13,14

 

 

REAL ESTATE 

In mid-November, the National Association of Realtors reported a 1.4% October gain for existing home sales. On November 29, however, it said that its pending home sales index had weakened by 2.6% in the tenth month of the year, so the autumn improvement in the pace of residential resales may prove fleeting.

5

October also brought less new home buying: sales fell 8.9%. (It must be noted that these initial numbers tend to be revised later.) The Census Bureau also announced a 0.6% decline for building permits in October, but housing starts did pick up 1.5%.

5

In terms of mortgages, only adjustable-rate loans grew significantly more expensive in November. The average rate on a 5/1-year ARM was 4.04% on November 1, according to Freddie Mac, but 4.12% on November 29. Mean interest on the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage went from 4.83% to 4.81% in that period; the average interest rate for the 15-year FRM went from 4.23% to 4.25%.

15

Annual home price gains were clearly lessening: the latest 20-city S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index showed only 5.1% appreciation in the 12 months ending in September.

5

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   M O N T H

 

Many couples buy life insurance when they start a family, insuring both partners (even if one elects to stop working). There is a good reason to insure both partners: If a stay-at-home spouse or partner passes away and is uninsured, a surviving spouse could face sizable expenses to pay for childcare and other household needs.

 

 

LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

Closing at 7,330.54 on November 30, the Nasdaq Composite eked out a monthly gain of 0.34%. The S&P 500’s 1.79% November rise left it at 2,760.17 at the end of the month, while the small-cap Russell 2000 ascended 1.45% to 1,533.27. (The Russell ended November down 0.15% YTD, lagging well behind the performance of the big three.) The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.68% to 25,538.46.

1,17

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

3.31

5.22

11.75

21.34

NASDAQ

6.19

6.64

16.11

42.43

S&P 500

3.24

4.25

10.57

23.82

 

 

 

 

 

REAL YIELD (%)

11/30 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

1.04

0.56

0.60

2.38

 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/30/18

18,19,20,21

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

While words from Jerome Powell gladdened investors last month, Wall Street expects another interest rate move from the Fed this month. On November 30, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool put the chances of a December 19 rate hike at 82.7%. The market has probably priced in a hike, but the Street may not be in the mood for a Santa Claus rally, given the seemingly entrenched perception that the business cycle has seen its peak and the glory days of this bull market have faded. This month, investors will carefully examine the latest jobs report and Fed policy statement, react to the new agreement between the U.S. and China to suspend further trade tariffs, and watch what happens with the Brexit parliamentary vote and the OPEC-Russia meeting early in the month. Hopefully, a turbulent year for equities will end on a positive note.

22,23

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   M O N T H

 

“I am

certain

there is too much

certainty

in the world.”

MICHAEL CRICHTON

 

 

UPCOMING RELEASES

Here is the docket for the rest of the year: the latest Department of Labor employment report and the initial December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (12/7), the November wholesale inflation report (12/11), November consumer inflation (12/12), November retail sales and industrial production (12/14), November housing starts and building permits (12/18), an interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve and a fresh existing home sales snapshot from the National Association of Realtors (12/19), the Conference Board’s newest leading indicator index (12/20), November personal spending and hard goods orders, the latest PCE price index, and the final assessment of Q3 growth (12/21), November new home sales and the Conference Board’s December consumer confidence gauge (12/27), and November pending home sales and the year’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index reading (12/28).

 

 

T H E  M O N T H L Y   R I D D L E

 

It is often surrounded by water and at risk from waves, and it has a fin rather than a sail or motor, but without water and waves, there would be no real use for it. What is it?

 

LAST MONTH’S RIDDLE: It is as old as the world, and yet new each month. What is it?

ANSWER: The moon.

 

 

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com 

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The CBOE Volatility Index

®

(VIX

®

) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx

®

, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The Nifty 50 (NTFE 50) is a well-diversified 50-stock index accounting for 13 sectors of the Indian economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index-based derivatives and index funds. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in

more than 25 emerging economies. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The IBEX 35 is the benchmark stock market index of the Bolsa de Madrid, Spain’s principal stock exchange. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index consists of the largest 50 companies by full market value and is also the first narrow-based index published in Taiwan. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets.  The FTSEurofirst 300 Index comprises the 300 largest companies ranked by market capitalisation in the FTSE Developed Europe Index. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization. The All Ordinaries (XAO) is considered a total market barometer for the Australian stock market and contains the 500 largest ASX-listed companies by way of market capitalization. The Mexican Stock Exchange, commonly known as Mexican Bolsa, Mexbol, or BMV, is the only stock exchange in Mexico. The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market

environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – markets.ft.com/data/world [11/30/18]

2 – marketwatch.com/story/seemingly-dovish-powell-says-interest-rates-are-just-below-level-where-they-wont-stimulate-economy-2018-11-28 [11/28/18]

3 – markets.wsj.com/ [11/28/18]

4 – fortune.com/2018/11/02/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate/ [11/2/18]

5 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [11/30/18]

 

6 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 [11/5/18]

7 – ww2.cfo.com/the-economy/2018/11/producer-price-index-rises-0-6-in-october/ [11/9/18]

8 – tinyurl.com/ydcrfazs [11/26/18]

 

9 – businessinsider.com/g20-summit-trump-signs-usmca-nafta-update-mexico-canada-2018-11 [11/30/18]

10 – foxbusiness.com/economy/china-reports-weakest-factory-growth-in-over-2-years [11/30/18]

11 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [11/30/18]

12 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [11/30/18]

13 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities [11/30/18]

14 – marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [11/30/18]

15 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [12/2/18]

16 – marketwatch.com/story/house-price-growth-slows-to-nearly-two-year-low-as-case-shiller-makes-the-slowdown-official-2018-11-27 [11/27/18]

17 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/russell/ [12/2/18]

18 – markets.wsj.com [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

20 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/30/18]

21 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/30/18]  

22 – cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html [11/30/18]

23 – reuters.com/article/us-g20-argentina-trump-statement/us-china-declare-90-day-halt-to-new-tariffs-white-house-says-idUSKCN1O101U [12/1/18] 

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Weekly Economic Update for December 3, 2018

In this week’s recap: stocks soar, the USMCA is signed, households spend more, and two housing market indicators fall short.

Weekly Economic Update

 

Presented by JB Beckett, December 3, 2018

 

COMMENTS FROM JEROME POWELL INSPIRE A RALLY

Wall Street liked what it heard from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell last week. While speaking Wednesday to an audience in New York, Powell stated that interest rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy – that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.” He also noted there was “no preset policy path” for raising interest rates in the near term. These dovish signals helped to send all three major U.S. stock indices 2.3-3.0% higher for the day, and their weekly performances were stellar: across five trading sessions, the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.64%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 5.16%; the S&P 500, 4.85%. They settled Friday as follows: Nasdaq, 7,330.54; Dow, 25,538.46; S&P, 2,760.16.

1,2

     

NAFTA REPLACEMENT DEAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP FORWARD

Friday, President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto formally signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at the 2018 G20 summit in Buenos Aires. The legislatures of each nation must now vote to approve the accord. The USMCA may face significant resistance in Congress.

3

    

CONSUMER SPENDING PACE ACCELERATES; CONFIDENCE GAUGE STILL HIGH

In October, personal spending rose 0.6%, while incomes improved 0.5%. (In noting this, the Department of Commerce revised the 0.4% personal spending gain of September down to 0.2%.) The monthly consumer confidence index, maintained by the Conference Board, declined 2.2 points in November to 135.7; that still exceeded the 135.5 consensus forecast from analysts polled by Briefing.com.

4

    

NEW HOME SALES and PENDING HOME SALES DECLINE

Demand for new homes has faded in the last 12 months. The Census Bureau said that sales slipped 8.9% in October, leaving the annualized sales pace 12.0% below where it was in October 2017. Housing contract activity also waned in October: the National Association of Realtors announced a 2.6% dip for pending home sales, which had increased 0.7% during September.

4,5

     

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

When you write a

will

, you must name an

executor

: either a friend or relative, or a financial or legal professional. A financial or legal professional who serves as your executor will probably be paid with assets from your estate.

 

 

THIS WEEK

The Institute for Supply Management presents its November manufacturing PMI on Monday. | Tuesday brings some earnings: AutoZone, Bank of Montreal, Dollar General, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Restoration Hardware, and Toll Brothers. | On Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell testifies on the U.S. economic outlook in the Senate; the Fed also releases its latest Beige Book, ADP unveils its November employment change report, ISM offers its November service sector PMI, and American Eagle Outfitters, H&R Block, Five Below, Hudson’s Bay Co., Korn/Ferry, Land’s End, and Lululemon Athletica all share earnings news. | The latest Challenger job-cut numbers are out Thursday, along with a new initial jobless claims report and earnings from Broadcom, Hovnanian Enterprises, Kroger, Michaels Companies, Thor Industries, Toro, and Ulta Beauty. | Friday, the Department of Labor’s newest employment report takes center stage.

 

 

Q U O T E  O F  T H E  W E E K

 

“Resolve to

be thyself

: and know, that he who finds himself, loses his misery.”

Matthew Arnold

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

3.31

5.22

11.75

21.34

NASDAQ

6.19

6.64

16.11

42.43

S&P 500

3.24

4.25

10.57

23.82

 

 

 

 

 

REAL YIELD

11/30 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

1.04

0.56

0.60

2.38

 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/30/18

2,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

It can be open, closed, empty, or full. Sometimes you see one, sometimes two. It can be bare, but never a bear. What is it?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What two things will you never eat for dinner?

ANSWER: Breakfast and lunch.

 

 

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com 

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

Know someone who could use information like this?

Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx® , and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – investors.com/news/economy/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-fed-rates-neutral-dow-jones/ [11/28/18]

2 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/30/18]

3 – businessinsider.com/g20-summit-trump-signs-usmca-nafta-update-mexico-canada-2018-11 [11/30/18]

4 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2018/11/26-30 [11/30/18]

5 – cnbc.com/2018/11/28/new-home-sales-october.html [11/28/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F30%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F29%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F1%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/30/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/30/18]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/30/18]

  

 

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Weekly Economic Update for November 26, 2018

In this week’s recap: a gain in existing home sales, a dip for consumer sentiment, more pain for the oil sector, and more losses for the big three.

Weekly Economic Update

 

Presented by JB Beckett, November 26, 2018

 

SUDDENLY, MORE HOMES SELL

Existing home sales improved in October for the first time in seven months. The National Association of Realtors announced a 1.4% monthly increase, while also noting that the annualized sales pace was 5.1% slower than it had been 12 months earlier. Across the year ending in October, the median sales price for an existing home rose 3.8%. There were 4.3 months of housing inventory listed last month, corresponding to the definition of a “tight” market among real estate professionals.

1

     

AT THANKSGIVING, CONSUMER SENTIMENT WEAKENS

In its final November edition, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a mark of 97.5, 1.1 points under its final October level. Analysts polled by Refinitiv anticipated a reading of 98.3. In March, the gauge reached a 14-year peak of 101.4; it has trended downward since.

2

    

WHEN WILL OIL RECOVER?

Next week? Next month? Last week, the commodity lost value again, slumping 7.7% on Friday alone (albeit in thin, post-Thanksgiving trading) to a NYMEX settlement of $50.42. That left light sweet crude 34% below its close on October 3. Oil industry analysts widely believe that OPEC will announce supply cuts at its December 6 meeting.

3

    

A SHORT WEEK BRINGS SIGNIFICANT DESCENTS

Oil’s troubles also affected equities, which were already hindered by investor pessimism in the days near Thanksgiving. The S&P 500 stumbled 3.79% across an abbreviated trading week, down to 2,632.56 at Friday’s closing bell. Thanksgiving week also saw the Dow Industrials slide 4.44% to 24,285.95. The Nasdaq Composite lost 4.26% in three-and-a-half trading sessions to fall to 6,938.98.

4

     

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

If your college student has a chance to enter

a work-study program

, you may worry that the part-time job and the course load will prove too much to handle. Most work-study programs set reasonable limits on the hours students work, however, and the job experience can help build your student’s resume.

 

 

THIS WEEK

On Monday, nothing major is scheduled. | The Conference Board’s November consumer confidence index appears Tuesday, plus earnings from Cracker Barrel, Salesforce, and Stein Mart. | Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a speech on monetary policy in New York on Wednesday, shortly before the closing bell; investors will also interpret the latest new home sales report from the Census Bureau, the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and earnings news from Burlington Stores, Chico’s FAS, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Guess, La-Z-Boy, J.M. Smucker, and Sportsman’s Warehouse. | Thursday, minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve policy meeting arrive, along with October consumer spending figures, the NAR’s October pending home sales report, a new initial jobless claims report, and earnings from Abercrombie, Dell Technologies, Dollar Tree, Express, GameStop, HP, Kirkland’s, and TD Bank. | Friday, the G20 summit starts in Buenos Aires, and with it, the possibility of renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China.

 

 

Q U O T E  O F  T H E  W E E K

 

“Sometimes the questions are

complicated

, and the answers are

simple

.”

Theodore Seuss geisel

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

-1.75

3.09

10.24

18.76

NASDAQ

0.52

0.72

14.77

37.14

S&P 500

-1.54

1.16

9.17

20.91

 

 

 

 

 

REAL YIELD

11/23 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

1.09

0.50

0.56

3.11

 

Sources: ft.com, bigcharts.

com, treasury.gov – 11/23/18

5,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

What 

two things

will you never eat for dinner?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What goes back and forth all the time while keeping time, causing a bit of noise only some of the time?

ANSWER: A pendulum.

 

 

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com 

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

Know someone who could use information like this?

Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx® , and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/u-s-existing-home-sales-rise-for-first-time-in-seven-months [11/21/18]

2 – cnbc.com/2018/11/21/consumer-sentiment-final-november-reading.html [11/21/18]

3 – cnbc.com/2018/11/23/oil-prices-slump-to-their-lowest-level-of-2018-even-as-opec-considers-cuts.html [11/23/18]

4 – markets.ft.com/data/world [11/23/18]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F24%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F24%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F24%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/23/18]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/23/18]

 

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Perspectives Monthly Lifestyle eNewsletter for December, 2018

Beckett Financial Group      825 Meeting Street, West Columbia, SC 29169      BeckettFinancialGroup.com

(803) 939-4848

JB Beckett

JB@BeckettFinancialGroup.com

JB Beckett presents:

 

SMART TIP:

Did you know that fruit “drinks,” “cocktails,” and “beverages” may only contain 5-15% fruit juice? Often, these drinks are loaded with added sugars as well.

 

WHO SAID IT?

“I like to listen. I have learned a great deal from listening carefully. Most people never listen.”

 

[GET THE ANSWER]

 

TEST YOUR

KNOWLEDGE:

Q:

Across the 12 months ending in October, wages grew at an annualized pace not seen in nine years. How much did they increase?

 

A)

2.0%

B)

3.1%

C)

3.8%

D)

5.1%

 

[GET THE ANSWER]

 

 

December, 2018

More Warmth for the Money

Tips to help you stay snug in the winter for less.

[CLICK TO READ]

 

 

Making Your Savings Last for Life

Three little adjustments might help.

[CLICK TO READ]

 

 

Rock

Out

In at the Gym

Why you might love indoor climbing, especially in the winter.

[CLICK TO READ]

 

 

Recipe of the Month

Creamy Bacon Leek Soup – A warm winter treat

[CLICK TO READ]

 

More Warmth for the Money

Tips to help you stay snug in the winter for less.

 

Is your heating bill too large? There are some measures you can take (both digital and analog) that might help you heat your house for less. For free, you can open drapes to let more solar heat in during the day (it helps if your windows are clean), and you can lower the temperature setting on your water heater to around 120°. You can lower the thermostat a couple of degrees, move pieces of furniture away from the radiators and vents you placed them near in the summer, and keep the flue on your fireplace closed when you are not having a fire. For $15 or less, you can install a nylon door sweep, a door snake, clear plastic film for window panes, or rope caulk for frames. You can also pick up a new furnace filter for about $15 (and the per-filter cost drops way down when you buy them in bulk).

 

A first-rate, programmable thermostat may help you cut your heating bills by 10-20% alone. The genius of a programmable thermostat is that it lets you set different temperatures for your house or apartment at various times of the day. You can set it lower in the hours when you sleep; higher in your waking hours. Some programmable thermostats allow up to four different temperature settings per day, and they come with override switches.

1

 

 

Making Your Savings Last for Life

Three little adjustments might help.

 

For decades, people approaching or entering retirement have had a common anxiety: a worry about outliving their money. Even good savers with long histories of contributing to retirement plans share it. While the risk may be higher for some than others, there are some very basic things households can do that might help retirement money stretch a bit further.

 

Take retiring to a less expensive metro area or a smaller city. Personal finance website SmartAsset analyzed how far $1 million in retirement savings would go in certain metro areas. In New York City, the answer was 10.5 years; in San Francisco, 12.7 years. Contrast that with Phoenix (25+ years) and San Antonio (27 years). Another cost saver: reduce the entertainment budget. Retirement means more leisure time and a daily opportunity to dine out and splurge. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, Americans aged 65-74 spend an average of $5,832 on eating out, entertainment, and other leisure pursuits per year. Also, too many households do not budget in retirement, and without a budget, money can mysteriously leak out of a retirement fund over time. Even those who do budget may forget to set aside some money for the probabilities of home upkeep and car repair.

2

 

 

Rock

Out

In at the Gym

Why you might love indoor climbing, especially in the winter.

 

If you like to exercise outdoors, you may feel pent up when you are in the gym for your winter workouts. To counter this feeling, look up. If your gym has a climbing wall (or you can find one that does), you may get a workout with a sense of exploration and “outdoor” activity that you will never experience on a Stairmaster.

 

Indoor climbing is less scary than many gymgoers think. Most gyms with climbing walls provide beginner and intermediate classes covering technique, commands, belaying, proper falls, and more. (A soft, padded floor is at the base of the wall.) Not only that, shoes, harnesses, clips, and chalk bags are readily available to rent. Many gyms use auto-belays with automatic braking systems, which means you do not need a climbing partner; the auto-belay will gently guide you down if you feel tired or feel like you are too high up. Novice climbers may perceive indoor climbing or bouldering as an upper-body workout; in fact, it also tests the legs, feet, and core. So if you are feeling some winter blues and the great outdoors seems out of reach, go ahead and climb the walls.

3

 

 

 

 

Recipe of the Month

Creamy Bacon Leek Soup

A warm and hearty winter treat!

 

Ingredients:

3 lbs. baking potatoes

1/3 lb. smoked bacon

1 lb. cheddar cheese

6 cups chicken broth

2 medium leeks

1 cup heavy cream

1 small onion

1 clove garlic

3 Tbsp. butter (unsalted)

1/2 cup one-to-one, gluten free flour

1/2 tsp. sea salt

1/3 tsp. ground black pepper

3 Tbsp. scallions (as garnish)

 

Begin by preparing your ingredients. Wash leeks, peel away the first few outer layers, trim and chop. Peel potatoes and cube. Chop onion. Mince garlic. Shred cheese, and slice scallions, thinly. Set aside.

 

In a very large saucepan, fry bacon over high heat until crisp, place on paper towel, then drain all but 3 tablespoons of drippings. Reduce heat to medium, return pan to heat, and add butter. Once butter has melted, stir in leeks, onion, and garlic, then sauté until softened (approximately 4-6 minutes). Continue to stir as you gently pour in half of the chicken broth, then stir in flour, then the remaining broth. Continue to stir until thoroughly mixed.

 

Increase to high heat and add cubed potatoes. Allow the mixture to come to a boil, then simmer over low heat until potatoes are tender (approximately 12-17 minutes).

 

In a separate bowl (large, heat safe) mix cheese with several full ladles of hot soup. Stir until thoroughly blended, then add cheese mixture to saucepan and increase heat to medium.

 

Finally, maintaining a continuous stir, gently add cream, sea salt, and pepper, allowing the soup to come nearly to a boil, then remove from heat.

 

Chop cooked bacon and sprinkle over the top of each bowl, along with scallions and shredded cheese, as you serve.

 

 

JB Beckett may be reached at

(803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

WHO SAID IT?

 

Ernest Hemingway

 

TEST YOUR KNOWLEDGE ANSWER:

A:

 B, 3.1%.

4

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

 

 

Citations

.

1 – thisoldhouse.com/ideas/keeping-warm-less [11/6/18]

2 – usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2018/10/28/retirement-budget-spending-tips-avoid-running-out-money/1748978002/ [10/28/18]

3 – health.com/fitness/beginner-rock-climbing [10/5/18]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/economists-say-wow-to-jobs-report-as-wage-growth-picks-up-2018-11-02 [11/2/18]

 

If you wish to be removed from our mailing list please click here .

Weekly Economic Update for November 19, 2018

In this week’s recap: a bit more inflation pressure, a big fall retail sales gain, another setback for light sweet crude, and a down week on Wall Street.

Weekly Economic Update

 

Presented by JB Beckett, November 19, 2018

 

IN OCTOBER, INFLATION JUMPED THE MOST SINCE JANUARY

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was the largest monthly gain for the headline CPI since its 0.5% move in the first month of the year. A 3.0% leap in gasoline prices played a significant role. Core consumer inflation, which does not include volatile food and energy costs, increased by 0.2% in October.

1

     

RETAIL SALES RISE 0.8%

Consumers certainly entered fall in a buying mood. Even with car and truck sales factored out, the gain was still 0.7% in October, and that left overall U.S. retail purchases up 4.6% year-over-year. In September, retail purchases tailed off 0.1% (the Department of Commerce first reported a 0.1% advance).

2

    

WTI CRUDE FALLS INTO A BEAR MARKET

Oil’s fourth-quarter slide continued last week. Friday, light sweet crude ended the week at $56.46 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after its price slid 6.2% across five trading sessions, hitting a 12-month closing low of $55.69 on Tuesday. The commodity is now on a 6-week losing streak.

3

    

MAJOr INDICES RETREAT

Investors were left cold by some of last week’s key earnings reports, and the significant October inflation advance seemed to provide additional substantiation for a year-end Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The S&P 500 lost 1.61% in five days, falling to 2,736.27 at Friday’s closing bell.  It fared better than both the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite; last week, the blue chips slumped 2.22% to 25,413.22, while the tech-heavy benchmark dipped 2.15% to 7,247.87.

4

    

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

Did you know

mortgage rates fluctuate daily

during the week? If you are looking for a home loan, be sure to assess the terms of different loans on the same day. If you finalize negotiations on a loan, ask your lender to lock in the terms.

 

 

THIS WEEK

Agilent Technologies, Intuit, Jack in the Box, and Urban Outfitters present earnings on Monday. | Analog Devices, Barnes & Noble, Best Buy, BJ’s Wholesale Club, Campbell Soup, Foot Locker, Gap, Hormel Foods, Kohl’s, Lowe’s, Medtronic, Ross Stores, Stage Stores, Target, and TJX all announce earnings on Tuesday; in addition, the Census Bureau releases a report on October housing starts. | Wednesday sees the release of the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the October existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, the October leading indicator index from the Conference Board, and a new monthly report on capital goods orders from the Census Bureau. | U.S. financial markets are closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving. | Friday, stock and bond markets reopen for a shortened trading session, with no major economic news or earnings announcements scheduled. 

 

 

Q U O T E  O F  T H E  W E E K

 

“We must learn to be

still

in the midst of activity and to be

vibrantly alive

in repose.”

indira gandhi

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

2.81

8.33

11.84

20.72

NASDAQ

4.99

6.69

16.37

38.90

S&P 500

2.34

5.83

10.43

22.16

 

 

 

 

 

REAL YIELD

11/16 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

1.06

0.53

0.53

2.85

 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, tre

asury.gov – 11/16/18

4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

What goes back and forth all the time while keeping time, causing a bit of noise only some of the time

?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: A young man runs away from home. Cheered on by onlookers, he makes three lefts, then finds two masked men ahead of him, but he runs toward them. Can you explain why?

ANSWER: He is rounding the bases in a baseball game and heading toward home plate.

 

 

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com 

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

Know someone who could use information like this?

Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx® , and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – cnbc.com/2018/11/14/us-consumer-price-index-october-2018.html [11/14/18]

2 – investors.com/news/economy/retail-sales-rise-amazon-walmart-ecommerce/ [11/15/18]

3 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-reclaims-more-ground-though-the-sharp-selloff-accounts-for-a-4-weekly-loss-2018-11-16 [11/16/18]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/16/18]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/16/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/16/18]

 

If you wish to be removed from our mailing list please click here .

Your monthly Retirement In Sight newsletter for November, 2018

Beckett Financial Group      825 Meeting Street, West Columbia, SC 29169      BeckettFinancialGroup.com

(803) 939-4848

JB Beckett

JB@BeckettFinancialGroup.com

Monthly News and Information for Current and Future Retirees

Presented by JB Beckett – NOVEMBER 2018

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

 

“Live life to the fullest.”

ERNEST HEMINGWAY

retirEment PLANNING CONTINUES AFTER YOU RETIRE

It can be easy think of retirement planning as a means to an end: a series of purposeful meetings leading up to a life transition. This transition is not the end of retirement planning. Think of this transition (and the steps preceding it) as the first phase. The second phase focuses on managing your spending, plus enhancing your income and savings.

It may be useful to plan your spending with the “bucket” approach. In this strategy, you withdraw assets from three “buckets” to spend on present-day, near-term, and future needs. The present-day (or short-term) bucket is a bucket of cash, typically from bank accounts or short-duration, fixed-income investments, that complements Social Security and other income sources. This is a liquid resource you can tap for emergency expenses as well as everyday needs. Your second bucket is your near-term bucket, a portion of your retirement savings invested for a mix of growth and income. This bucket could help you finance your vacations, a remodel of your home or yard or a dream that emerges during your “second act.” Your third bucket, a portion of your retirement fund invested mostly with an eye toward long-range growth, can be used to address health care costs (including long-term care expenses). All the while, tweaks can be made to your retirement plan in pursuit of tax efficiency and improved income streams (one may lead to the other). According to Bankrate, 61% of Americans have no idea how much money they will need to save for retirement, and very few have probably considered how they will spend the savings they have once away from work. So the first phase of retirement planning is designed to provide one kind of clarity; the second phase, another.

1

TRAVEL TIP

 

Going abroad? Bring medications and supplements in original packaging.

In other countries, you may end up getting generics rather than brand names, and supplements and vitamins may come in different forms than you expect. Ask your physician for the exact generic names of the drugs you take. 

THE MAY-DECEMBER RETIREMENT CHALLENGE

When one spouse or partner is considerably older than the other, retirement may unfold differently for that couple than it does for others. Most importantly, the younger spouse or partner must realize how self-reliant he or she may need to be decades from now. 

If you are a Gen Xer married to or partnered with a Baby Boomer, the prime challenge may be making your own wealth last until your eighties or nineties. Your spouse or partner may have a greater amount of wealth and retirement savings than you do, but future long-term care or hospital expenses may reduce it to an extent you cannot anticipate. Consider also that you might need to retire earlier than you think, to care or simply be with your spouse or partner if he or she becomes physically or mentally frail. If you can work well into your sixties, this can be a plus, as you can maintain your own income and keep up your own retirement savings effort. If you are in your early sixties and your partner or spouse is in his or her eighties and in need of eldercare, having at least one income can help if your home needs upkeep or if you need to downsize. If you intend to retire together, your loved one may be eligible for Medicare, but you may be without any health insurance for some time (and the average annual premium for individual private health coverage was $6,896 this year, by the estimate of the National Conference of State Legislatures). These matters all deserve consideration before a retirement decision is made.

2

DID YOU KNOW?

 

Sometimes the red planet gets a blanket of white

Snow occasionally falls on parts of Mars. The snow is a bit different than that we know on Earth, however: it is not comprised of water, but carbon dioxide. As a result, there are no snowflakes during a Mars snowfall, only a kind of fog.

3

ON THE

BRIGHT SIDE

At the end of the third quarter of 2018, the average IRA balance was $111,000. That was more than double the average balance of $52,000 in 2008, according to Fidelity Investments.

4

BRAIN TEASER

 

What belongs to you, but is used more by others?

STUMPED? CALL (803) 939-4848 FOR THE ANSWER!

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com 

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

 

CITATIONS.

1 – investopedia.com/retirement/retirement-planning-doesnt-stop-when-you-retire/ [11/12/18]

2 – washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/29/retiring-with-big-age-gap-these-couples-share-joys-challenges/ [10/29/18]

3 – mentalfloss.com/life-on-mars-facts [11/12/18]

4 – plansponsor.com/years-positive-retirement-savings-behaviors-lead-record-balances/ [11/5/18]

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Weekly Economic Update for November 12, 2018

In this week’s recap: swift service sector expansion, sustained consumer optimism, a surge in wholesale inflation, and gains for equities.

Weekly Economic Update

 

Presented by JB Beckett, November 12, 2018

 

SERVICE SECTOR KEEPS BOOMING

At a lofty October mark of 60.3, the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was a bit lower than the record 61.6 reading seen in September, but it also beat the 59.3 consensus forecast from Refinitiv. Across the 12 months ending in October, the mean reading for the index was a strong 58.5.

1,2

     

IS THIS THE BEST YEAR FOR CONSUMER SENTIMENT SINCE 2000?

It could turn out that way, if the University of Michigan’s influential index maintains its current level. Its preliminary November edition came in at 98.3, slightly below the final October mark of 98.6 and slightly above the 98.0 reading projected in a Bloomberg analyst poll. The gauge has averaged a reading of 98.4 in 2018, a level unseen in the past 18 years.

3

    

WHOLESALE INFLATION JUMPS 0.6% IN A MONTH

Higher costs for fuel and industrial supplies were significant factors, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI rose 2.9% across the 12 months ending in October.

4

    

A NEW MONTH, A NEW DIRECTION FOR STOCKS

In November, the market is doing its best to erase the memory of October. All three major indices advanced again last week, with the Dow Industrials adding 2.84%; the S&P 500, 2.13%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.68%. At Friday’s close, their settlements were: Dow, 25,989.30; S&P, 2,781.01; Nasdaq, 7,406.90.

5

    

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

If the

terms on one of your credit cards change unfavorably

, you may consider dropping the card. Think twice about doing so. If you have had the account for years and the payment history is good, closing it out could possibly hurt your FICO score. Instead, 

use that card for minor purchases only

.

 

 

THIS WEEK

Monday marks the observance of Veterans Day; the bond market will be closed, but stocks, currencies, and commodities will be actively traded, with no major earnings news scheduled. | Tuesday, earnings roll in from Advance Auto Parts, Aramark Holdings, Bayer, Beazer Homes, Cumulus Media, Home Depot, and

Tyson Foods. | On Wednesday, the latest Consumer Price Index surfaces, and investors also

consider earnings news from Cisco, Griffon, Macy’s, NetApp, NetEase, and Smart & Final. | October retail sales figures appear Thursday, along with a new initial jobless claims report and earnings from America’s Car-Mart, Applied Materials, Energizer Holdings, JCPenney, Nordstrom, Nvidia, Shoe Carnival, Sonos, and Walmart. | Friday, Viacom announces Q4 results.

 

 

Q U O T E  O F  T H E  W E E K

 

“The

best and most beautiful things

in the world cannot be seen or even touched – they

must be felt with the heart

.”

Helen Keller

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

5.14

10.77

12.98

19.30

NASDAQ

7.29

9.73

17.80

35.81

S&P 500

4.02

7.60

11.41

20.25

 

 

 

 

 

REAL YIELD

11/9 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

1.15

0.46

0.59

2.84

 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, tre

asury.gov – 11/9/18

5,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

A young man

runs away from home

. Cheered on by onlookers, he makes

three lefts

, then finds

two masked men

ahead of him, but he runs toward them

. Can you explain why?

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: It floats when born, lies down when alive, and runs as it dies. What is it?

ANSWER: Snow.

 

 

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com 

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

Know someone who could use information like this?

Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx® , and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – cnbc.com/2018/11/05/october-ism-non-manufacturing-index.html [11/5/18]

2 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 [11/5/18]

3 – 247wallst.com/economy/2018/11/09/november-consumer-sentiment-slips-election-impact-negligible/ [11/9/18]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-inflation-surges-in-october-to-6-year-high-ppi-shows-2018-11-09 [11/9/18]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F9%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F9%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F9%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F8%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F8%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F8%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F10%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F10%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F10%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/9/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/9/18]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/9/18]

 

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Weekly Economic Update for August 13, 2018

In this week’s recap: core inflation reaches a 10-year peak, oil’s losing streak continues, earnings impress, and Wall Street indices have a mixed week.

1

Weekly Economic Update

 

Presented by JB Beckett, August 13, 2018

 

INFLATION AT 2.9%, CORE INFLATION AT 2.4% 

Friday, the Department of Labor reported these annualized gains through July of this year for the Consumer Price Index. Both the headline and core CPIs rose 0.2% last month, matching the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters. The yearly core inflation increase is the largest on record since September 2008. (The core inflation reading leaves out food and energy costs.) The Producer Price Index was flat in July, with the yearly advance declining slightly to 3.4%; the core PPI rose 0.3%, resulting in a 2.8% annualized gain.

1,2

 

HOW IS EARNINGS SEASON GOING?

Ninety-one percent of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 results so far. FactSet, the respected stock market analytics firm, reports that 72% have surprised to the upside in terms of sales and 79% have topped earnings expectations. Weighing actual earnings results and future projections, FactSet estimates a 24.6% “blended” earnings growth rate for the second quarter. On Friday, the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was 16.6; that compares to an average of 16.2 across the past five years.

3

 

OIL FALLS FOR A SIXTH STRAIGHT WEEK

WTI crude last suffered such a losing streak in 2015. Friday, it settled at $67.63 on the NYMEX, even after a 1.2% advance during Friday’s trading session. Some commodities investors believe that the emerging trade war will reduce demand for energy products.

4

 

NASDAQ ADVANCES, S&P and DOW RETREAT

The possibility of the U.S. doubling tariffs on Turkish aluminum and steel sent stocks skidding worldwide, Friday, as diplomatic disagreements between the countries took on an economic aspect. Of the three major Wall Street indices, only the Nasdaq Composite posted a weekly gain, rising 0.35% to 7,839.11. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% in five days, settling at 2,833.28 Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week 0.59% lower at 25,313.14.

5,6

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

This year, the Internal Revenue Service eased the “use it or lose it” rule on 

Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs)

. In the past, funds you directed into an FSA had to be spent by the end of a year or else they would be forfeited.

The I.R.S. now permits you to carry over as much as $500 in FSA funds into the next year,

but your employer must elect to allow this option.

 

 

THIS WEEK

Sysco announces Q2 results Monday. | Advance Auto Parts, Agilent Technologies, and Home Depot present earnings on Tuesday. | On Wednesday, July retail sales numbers are out, along with earnings from Briggs & Stratton and Cisco. | Nordstrom, Nvidia, and Walmart share quarterly results on Thursday, as Wall Street also considers new data on initial jobless claims and July homebuilding activity. | The University of Michigan’s initial August consumer sentiment index appears on Friday, plus the Conference Board’s latest leading indicators index and earnings from Deere & Co.

 

 

Q U O T E  O F  T H E  W E E K

 

“Do not accustom yourself to use big words for

little matters.

SAMUEL JOHNSON

 

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

2.40

15.88

12.82

11.48

NASDAQ

13.55

26.09

22.84

22.13

S&P 500

5.97

16.20

13.50

11.71

 

 

 

 

 

REAL YIELD

8/10 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.78

0.40

0.33

1.80

 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 8

/10/18

6,7,8,9

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

A cargo truck hauling a load of lumber

can carry 2 tons

. It approaches a bridge with a sign, which notes that

the bridge can support up to 2 tons of weight

. The driver sees the sign and reckons that the bridge should hold up under the weight of the truck. Is the driver right?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: Gary drops an egg onto a sidewalk. The egg doesn’t break after falling 3 feet. Why?

ANSWER: The egg is dropped from a height of more than 3’, so after 3’ of falling, it has not yet broken.

 

 

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com 

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

Know someone who could use information like this?

Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx® , and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – cnbc.com/2018/08/10/us-cpi-july-2018.html [8/10/18]

2 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-inventories/u-s-producer-prices-unchanged-in-july-idUSKBN1KU1JH [8/9/18] 

 

3 – factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_081018.pdf [8/10/18]

  

4 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-10/oil-set-for-sixth-weekly-loss-as-u-s-china-trade-war-escalates [8/10/18]

5 – thestreet.com/markets/stocks-slide-amid-currency-crisis-in-turkey-14679908 [8/10/18]

 

6 – markets.wsj.com/us [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F10%2F17&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F10%2F17&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F10%2F17&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F9%2F13&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F9%2F13&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F9%2F13&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [8/10/18]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/10/18]

 

9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/10/18]

   

 

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Monthly Economic Update for August, 2018

In this month’s recap: earnings and fundamentals encourage Wall Street, while tariff talk continues, inflation pressure mounts, and home sales decline.

Monthly Economic Update

 

Presented by JB Beckett, August 2018

 

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

While investors kept tariffs and trade disputes in mind in August, a new earnings season provided Wall Street with a lift. Blue chips especially benefited: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.71% for the month. Broadly speaking, strong corporate profits and domestic economic data gladdened the bulls, even as question marks about global commerce flashed.

1

 

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Was the federal government about to enlarge tariffs on Chinese imports or relax them? The month ended with conflicting signals. In late July, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was considering hiking the 10% import taxes, which it planned to impose on $200 billion of Chinese-made goods this fall, to 25%. Yet as the month ended, representatives of the offices of Secretary of State Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He were trying to rekindle trade negotiations, with the possibility of dropping these proposed tariffs.

2

 

Two other developments concerning tariffs made headlines. On July 1, Canada acted to impose a 25% import tax on American steel products and a 10% import tax on assorted U.S. consumer, food, and agriculture exports coming through its borders. On July 25, President Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker agreed to lower the respective industrial tariffs the U.S. and E.U. had announced and postpone others (such as the planned 25% U.S. tax on European-built autos) pending further talks.

3,4

A new report from the Department of Labor showed a net June gain of 213,000 jobs. That topped the 195,000 projected by Bloomberg’s consensus forecast. Headline unemployment increased to 4.0% from 3.8% in June, while the U-6 rate, counting the underemployed, rose 0.2% to 7.8%, but those changes reflected the growth in the labor force participation rate. Wages were rising 2.7% a year at the end of the second quarter.

5

Consumer costs, however, were increasing at 2.9% per year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. That was the highest inflation rate seen since February 2012. Well beneath the headline number, the core CPI (which removes food and fuel prices) was up just 2.3%, annually, through June. The large difference between the two CPIs reflects the impact of a 30.8% year-over-year rise in the price of fuel oil and a 24.3% annualized gain for the cost of gasoline. (The June Producer Price Index showed yearly wholesale inflation running at 3.4%.)

6,7

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager indices looked very strong as spring gave way to summer. In June, ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI achieved a mark of 59.1, improving 0.5 points. The June and July readings for ISM’s manufacturing PMI were also excellent: 60.2, then 58.1. Federal government reports showed durable goods orders increasing 1.0% in June; industrial output, 0.6%; manufacturing output, 0.8%.

6,8

On Main Street, consumer confidence held up even as households thought about the potential impact of tariffs on the economy. The Conference Board’s index rose 0.3 points in July to 127.4, and the University of Michigan’s barometer progressed from 97.1 in its preliminary July edition to a final July mark of 97.9.

6

 

Fresh Department of Commerce data showed consumers spending at a healthy rate at the end of spring. Personal spending was up 0.4% in June, with overall retail sales advancing 0.5%; all this was helped by a gain of 0.4% for personal incomes.

6

 

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

China announced moves last month to try and ward off the potential economic impact of U.S. tariffs and to stimulate an economy that had slowed slightly to 6.7% growth during the second quarter. Its central bank poured the equivalent of $74 billion U.S. into its financial system in June, a record. Its government announced a new round of bonds to facilitate localized upgrades in infrastructure and forthcoming tax cuts. Its foreign ministry denied accusations of currency manipulation to stimulate exports. Southeast Asia’s largest economies were still projected for healthy growth in 2018, in some cases matching that of the P.R.C. A median forecast from Bloomberg puts Indonesia’s 2018 GDP at 5.3%; Malaysia, 5.5%; Singapore, 3.1%; Thailand, 4.2%; Vietnam, 6.8%; the Philippines, 6.7%.

9,10

What if the Brexit occurred without any deal defining how the European Union and the United Kingdom could continue to do business? That troubling question was on many minds in Europe in July. U.K. Prime Minister Teresa May publicly stated back in 2017 that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain,” and the E.U. has been advising corporations and governments to prepare for the possibility of a “hard” Brexit. A “no-deal” Brexit is a real risk, with the customs border between Northern Ireland (part of the U.K.) and Ireland (part of the E.U.) as the major sticking point. The Netherlands, Belgium, and the U.K. have begun to stockpile cash and resources in case of potential economic shortages or hardships caused by a trade chasm. The projected date for the Brexit is March 29, 2019, but it could be postponed. Fifty-one percent of U.K. respondents to a July Sky News poll felt the Brexit was a bad move for the country, and 78% felt May’s government was doing a poor job of negotiating the separation.

11,12

 

WORLD MARKETS

Was July also a good month for foreign shares? Largely speaking, yes. India’s major indices and two South American benchmarks made the most dramatic gains. The Sensex advanced 6.16%; the Nifty 50, 5.99%. Brazil’s Bovespa topped both with a climb of 8.88%, while Argentina’s Merval jumped 12.27%. Mexico’s Bolsa advanced 4.27%. Speaking of emerging markets, the MSCI Emerging Markets index added 1.68%, while the MSCI World index improved 3.05% in July.

13,14

 

In Europe, the German DAX rose 4.06%. France’s CAC 40 ascended 3.53%, while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 gained 3.19%. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 posted a 1.46% July advance, and Russia’s Micex improved 1.10%. Looking at the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan’s TSE 50 rose 4.28%; Australia’s All Ordinaries, 1.22%; the Nikkei 225, 1.12%; the Shanghai Composite, 1.02%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.29%; South Korea’s Kospi, 1.33%. To our north, Canada’s TSX Composite gained 0.96%.

13

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

As stocks attracted investors during a solid earnings season, commodities lost some appeal. All the major energy futures declined across July, along with the four key metals. Oil closed the month at $68.43 on the NYMEX, taking a 7.84% loss. Unleaded gasoline dipped 4.85%; natural gas, 4.93%; heating oil, 3.19%. Copper stumbled 4.48% in July; silver, 3.18%; gold, 2.28%; platinum, 1.28%. COMEX gold was worth $1,223.10 an ounce at the close on July 31; COMEX silver, $15.54 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index added just 0.01% during July.

1,15

Some crops did post big gains, while others fell hard. July winners included wheat at +11.57%, corn at +6.36%, cotton at +5.61%, and soybeans at +5.25%. Among the losers: coffee at -2.44%, sugar at -8.77%, and cocoa at -12.88%.

15

 

REAL ESTATE 

New reports from the National Association of Realtors and Census Bureau showed home sales weakening in June. The slip in resales was minor: just 0.6%. It was, however, the third consecutive monthly retreat for existing home purchases; in spring, they slowed to a pace unseen since January. Some good news emerged to counter this: the NAR’s pending home sales index rose 0.9% in the sixth month of the year. New home buying fell off 5.3% during June; the May gain was revised to 3.9%.

6,16

Home values continued their healthy appreciation. The latest 20-city S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed home prices up 6.5%, year-over-year, through May. Prospective buyers could take heart in the fact that mortgage rates were little changed in late July from where they were in late June. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey from June 26 listed the mean interest rate on the 30-year FRM at 4.55%, the mean rate on the 15-year FRM at 4.04%, and the average interest rate for the 5/1-year ARM at 3.87%; in the July 26 PMMS, the respective numbers were 4.54%, 4.02%, and 3.87%.

6,17

The last month of the second quarter also witnessed less groundbreaking. In June, developers made 12.3% fewer housing starts and arranged 2.2% fewer building permits than in May, according to the Census Bureau.

6

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   M O N T H

 

Summer is an ideal time to organize your tax records.

 Contact your CPA and ask for a mid-year tax check-up. Opportunities for savings may emerge.

 

 

LOOKING BACK… LOOKING FORWARD

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 managed to catch up a little versus the Nasdaq Composite in July. Blue chips rose 4.71%, the S&P advanced 3.60%, and the Nasdaq improved 2.15% for the month. The Russell 2000 was not far behind in terms of performance, rising 1.69%. If it seemed that July was not all that volatile, the CBOE VIX’s performance will confirm your assumption; Wall Street’s top gauge of market instability fell 20.26% across July to 12.83, but remained up 16.21% YTD.

1,18

The Nasdaq, Dow, Russell, and S&P are all firmly in the green for 2018 at this date. As the closing bell rang on July 31, their year-to-date numbers were as follows: DJIA, +2.82%; S&P, +5.34%; COMP, +11.13%; RUT, +8.81%. When that trading session ended, the four benchmarks settled at these levels: DJIA, 25,415.19; COMP, 7,671.79; S&P, 2,816.29; RUT, 1,670.80.

1,18

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

2.82

16.10

12.79

12.34

NASDAQ

11.13

20.85

22.31

23.00

S&P 500

5.34

14.01

13.41

12.22

 

 

 

 

 

REAL YIELD (%)

7/31 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.84

0.48

0.38

1.65

 

Sources: barchart.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/31/

18

1,19,20,21

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

The second half of the year started with some promise: earnings and fundamentals largely came through and brightened the mood of investors contending with unanswered questions about global trade. July was the S&P 500’s fourth straight winning month, and 2018 is the twelfth year in the past 90 years in which the S&P has had an April-July win streak. In all previous 11 years featuring such a streak, the S&P advanced across the rest of the year. Will history repeat in 2018? Maybe not, but 11 for 11 is certainly encouraging. A strong finish to 2018 is by no means assured, as trade and diplomatic concerns, probable Federal Reserve rate hikes, and perhaps even a slowing U.S. business cycle cloud the horizon. The market will also exit earnings season this month, and that may leave less for investors to get excited about. Late-summer doldrums could certainly overtake Wall Street, but that does not rule out the possibility of a bullish fourth quarter.

22

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   M O N T H

 

Drive thy business

or it will drive thee.”

Benjamin FRANKLIN

 

 

UPCOMING RELEASES

What will investors pay attention to across the rest of August, in addition to the remaining earnings calls? They will look at the latest jobs report from the Department of Labor and ISM’s newest non-manufacturing PMI (8/3), the July PPI (8/9), the July CPI (8/10), July retail sales and industrial output (8/15), the Census Bureau’s latest snapshot of residential construction activity (8/16), the initial August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the Conference Board’s July leading indicators index (8/17), the NAR’s July existing home sales report (8/22), the Census Bureau’s latest new home sales announcement (8/23), July hard goods orders (8/24), a new Conference Board consumer confidence index (8/28), the second estimate of Q2 economic expansion and the NAR’s report on July pending home sales (8/29), July consumer spending figures and the July PCE price index (8/30), and lastly, the final August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (8/31).

 

 

T H E  M O N T H L Y   R I D D L E

 

The 22nd and 24th Presidents had the same biological mother and father, yet were not brothers. How was this possible?

 

LAST MONTH’S RIDDLE: Getting into it is often easy, as it may not require speech or much thought. It is often very difficult to get out of, though. What is it?

ANSWER: Trouble.

 

 

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com 

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

 

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Please feel free send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The CBOE Volatility Index

®

(VIX

®

) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx

®

, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-

established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The Nifty 50 (NTFE 50) is a well-diversified 50-stock index accounting for 13 sectors of the Indian economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index-based derivatives and index funds. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The Mexican Stock Exchange, commonly known as Mexican Bolsa, Mexbol, or BMV, is the only stock exchange in Mexico.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The FTSEurofirst 300 Index comprises the 300 largest companies ranked by market capitalisation in the FTSE Developed Europe Index. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index consists of the largest 50 companies by full market value and is also the first narrow-based index published in Taiwan. The All Ordinaries (XAO) is considered a total market barometer for the Australian stock market and contains the 500 largest ASX-listed companies by way of market capitalization. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).  The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange.  The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents

an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=performance [7/31/18]

2 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-31/u-s-china-said-to-seek-to-restart-talks-to-defuse-trade-war [7/31/18]

3 – piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trump-trade-war-china-date-guide [7/24/18]

4 – investors.com/news/economy/trade-war-trump-juncker-announce-deal-pulling-back-from-u-s-eu-from-brink/ [7/25/18]

5 – fortune.com/2018/07/06/june-2018-jobs-report/ [7/6/18]

6 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [7/31/18]

7 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi [7/12/18]

8 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [7/5/18]

9 – bbc.com/news/business-44933512 [7/24/18]

10 – straitstimes.com/business/economy/growth-outlooks-for-south-east-asias-economies-as-trade-war-fears-gather [7/16/18]

11 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-24/what-no-deal-brexit-means-and-how-it-may-be-averted-quicktake [7/24/18]

12 – reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll/britons-see-brexit-turning-sour-half-want-chance-to-vote-again-poll-idUSKBN1KK0KW [7/29/18]

13 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [7/31/18]

14 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [7/31/18]

15 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities [7/31/18]

16 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales [7/30/18]

17 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [7/30/18]

18 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/russell [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F31%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F31%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F31%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F31%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F31%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F31%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

19 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/31/18]

20 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/31/18]

21 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/31/18]

22 – marketwatch.com/story/the-fate-of-the-stock-market-for-2018-could-rest-on-the-next-5-trading-days-2018-07-24 [7/24/18]

 

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Weekly Economic Update for July 30, 2018

In this week’s recap: an impressive Q2 GDP reading, a consumer sentiment dip,a falloff in home buying, and the end of a long stock market correction.

Weekly Economic Update

Presented by JB Beckett, July 30, 2018

First estimate of Q2 GDP: 4.1%

Not since the third quarter of 2014 has the economy grown at such a pace.In its report released Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted 4.0% growth in consumer outlays during the quarter,a 7.3% improvement in business spending, and 3.5% more federal government spending. The BEA also revised the first-quarter GDP number up 0.2% to 2.2%.

1

CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO A 6-MONTH LOW

The University of Michigan’s final July consumer sentiment index came in at 97.9, 0.8 points higher than its preliminary reading earlier in the month, but 0.3 points below its final June mark.This minor month-over-monthdescentleft the gauge at its lowest level since January.

2

HOME SALES RETREAT

Existing home purchases slowed 0.6% in June, and new home buying weakened 5.3%. June was the third straight month to see a pullback in resales, according to the National Association of Realtors, and existing home sales were down 2.2%, year-over-year, as the first half of 2018 ended. In its monthly report, the Census Bureau noted that new home sales are up 6.9% YTD.

3

STOCKS PULL OUT OF CORRECTION MODE

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 – the Wall Street index that the financial media typically uses as shorthand for the broad stock market – exited its longestcorrection in nearly 34 years by settling at 2,846.07. (A correction is defined as a descent of at least 10% from an index’s peak close; an index recovers from a correction when it climbs 10% above a closing low.) The S&P gained 0.61% for the week, finishing Fridayat 2,818.82. The Dow Industrials bettered that, adding 1.57% in five days to reach 25,451.06 at Friday’s closing bell. Losing 1.06% for the week, the Nasdaq Composite declined to 7,737.42.

4,5

T I P O F T H E W E E K

It is better to

create an emergency fund with gradual amounts from your paycheck

than with a lump sum taken from an investment account. Retirement savings will notgrow and compound if they are drawn down early.

THIS WEEK

On Monday, the NAR presents its June pending home sales index, and Acadia Healthcare, AK Steel, Bloomin’ Brands, Booz Allen Hamilton, Caterpillar, CNA Financial, Denny’s, KBR, Kemper, Loews, Logitech, Nautilus, Nutrisystem, Rent-A-Center, Seagate Technology, and Transocean offer earnings news. | Tuesday, June personal spending data emerges, along with the June PCE price index, the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index, and earnings fromAnadarko Petroleum, Apple, Archer Daniels Midland, Baidu, BP, Charter Communications, Container Store, Credit Suisse, Cummings, Extra Space Storage,Fidelity National, Fortis, Fresh Del Monte Produce, Frontier Communications, Genworth, Huntsman, Hyatt Hotels, Pandora Media, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Ralph Lauren, Sony, Unisys, Vulcan Materials, WestJet, and William Lyon Homes. | On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve issues its latest policy statement, ADP puts out its latest payrolls report, the Institute for Supply Management unveils its June manufacturingPMI, and earnings arrive from Alamo Group, Allstate, AMC Entertainment, AmeriGas, Arcelor Mittal, AutoNation, Chesapeake Energy, Cirrus Logic, Diebold Nixdorf, Energizer Holdings, Express Scripts, Fitbit, Garmin, Hanesbrands, Herbalife, Humana, Macerich, Marathon Oil, MetLife, Molson Coors, Pitney Bowes, Prudential Financial, Public Storage, Sprint, Square, Taylor Morrison, Tesla, TripAdvisor, U.S. Steel, Valvoline, Voya Financial, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, and Zynga.| Thursday’s earnings roll call includes Activision Blizzard, Aetna, AMC Networks, AIG, Avon, Blue Apron, CBRE Group, CBS, Cigna, Clorox, DowDuPont, Duke Energy, Fluor, GoDaddy, GoPro, Icahn Enterprises, Kellogg, MGM Resorts, Motorola Solutions, Parker Hannifin, Pinnacle Foods, RE/MAX Holdings, Shake Shack, Spectra Energy, Symantec, Take-Two Interactive, Teva Pharmaceutical, Western Union, Wingstop, and Yum! Brands. | A new employment report from the Department of Labor appears Friday, plus ISM’s June non-manufacturing PMI and earnings from Kraft Heinz.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

No act of kindness,

no matter how small, is ever wasted.”

AESOP

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

2.96

16.59

12.72

12.86

NASDAQ

12.08

21.38

22.83

24.17

S&P 500

5.43

14.03

13.33

12.84

REAL YIELD

7/27 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.84

0.49

0.43

1.70

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/27/18

5,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

T H E W E E K L Y R I D D L E

What can you feel but never touch,

hear but never see?

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: Scott has math 4 times a week. If he has math at 8:00 Monday, 9:00 on Tuesday and Wednesday, and 8:00 on Friday, when does he have math on Thursday?

ANSWER: Scott does not have math on Thursday, as he already has math at the four other times.

JB Beckett may be reached at (803) 939-4848 or jb@beckettfinancialgroup.com

BeckettFinancialGroup.com

Know someone who could use information like this?

Please feel free send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx® , and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – cnbc.com/2018/07/27/us-gdp-q2-2018.html [7/27/18]

2 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-27/u-s-consumer-sentiment-falls-to-six-month-low-on-trade-concern [7/27/18]

3 – nytimes.com/aponline/2018/07/25/us/politics/ap-us-new-home-sales.html [7/25/18]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-just-ended-its-longest-stint-in-correction-territory-since-1984-2018-07-25 [7/25/18]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F28%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F28%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F28%2F17&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F26%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F26%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F26%2F13&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/27/18]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/27/18]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/27/18]

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